WHAT WE DO

We understand Australia’s Residential Greenfield Market.

Research4 undertake detailed and unique research focusing on better understanding the Australian residential Greenfield market. Research4 data and analytics underpin a range of third party research programs; private sector land supply programs, state government planning programs, industry state of the market reports and various Developer in-house research and analytics programs. Research4 produce an array of market performance reports, data packs and undertake bespoke consulting pertaining to the Australian Greenfield market. Contact Research4 to see how we can respond to your specific needs.

RESEARCH4 LIVE SNAPSHOT

| UPDATED MARCH 2019 |

 

952
Number Of Land Estates Under Survey
856
Number Of Developers Selling Land
9,100
New Lots Released This Quarter
299,000
Median Land Price Geelong
337,000
Median Lot Price Melbourne
399,000
Median Lot Price Wider Sydney
275,000
Median Lot Price South East Queensland
218,000
Median Lot Price Perth
Collapsed
Melbourne New Land Market Status
Collapsed
Sydney New Land Market Status
Holding Well
South East Queensland New Land Market Status
Weak
Perth New Land Market Status

MAJOR UPDATES

The latest information on all of the residential Greenfield markets that we cover.

Selected market updates are constantly being added to the Research4 website. Additionally, connect to Colin Keane via LinkedIn for further market updates.

Sydney

November 21, 2018 in Sydney

Sydney Q3 2018 – Five Point Scorecard

R4_NSW_5P_Q318 Read More

Melbourne

November 21, 2018 in Melbourne

Melbourne Q3 18 – Five Point Scorecard

R4_VIC_5P_Q318 Read More

Perth

November 21, 2018 in Perth

Perth Q3 18 – Five Point Scorecard

R4_WA_5P_Q318 Read More

South East Queensland

November 21, 2018 in South East Queensland

SEQ Q3 18 – Five Point Scorecard

R4_SEQ_5P_Q318 Read More

National

November 21, 2018 in ACT

National Q3 18 – Headline Sales

R4_NAT_SALES_Q318 Read More

Adelaide

November 21, 2018 in Adelaide

Adelaide Q3 18 – Adelaide Land Market

R4_SA_5P_Q318 Read More

R4 Market Insight Reports – New

December 20, 2017 in R4 INSIGHT

TOP 10 TRADING ESTATES – Q3 17 QUARTER

Top 10 trading land estates based on Gross activity for the quarter. All data is… Read More

Geelong

June 8, 2018 in Geelong

Geelong Greenfield Market Update Q1 2018

Geelong Greenfield Market Update Colin Keane presented the latest Research4 data and insights pertaining to… Read More

Press Release

October 5, 2018 in Press Releases

New land sales have doubled over the past 6 years

The latest research from the R4 National Land Survey shows that there were an estimated… Read More

Downloads

May 8, 2018 in Downloads

Melbourne UDIA Research Breakfast Presentation

Colin Keane Presents latest R4 research at the UDIA Victoria research breakfast Colin Keane presented… Read More

SOME COFFEE TABLE THOUGHTS

GEELONG LAND MARKET

 

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The Geelong and Surf Coast new land market continues to post impressive results. Total net sales lifted by 11% for the quarter [ Dec 17 quarter]; compared to Melbourne total net sales dropping by 16%. The popularity of the Geelong market is being driven by a combination of factors; strong levels of population growth for the State, very tight new land market across the South West Greenfield markets of Melbourne, competitive land prices and the simple location of the Geelong new land market. I think that the market is now seeing Geelong as a great lifestyle opportunity. It is the only Melbourne Greenfield sub market that can boast close proximity to significant coastal assets. The market seems to be managing the spike in demand via a sustainable release program and control over lot prices. Lot prices for the market increased by 3% for the year; compared to Melbourne land prices lifting close to 30%.

POPULATION CHANGES

 

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The latest figures from the ABS covering changes to the nation’s population base; September 2018 show that an estimated 98,000 persons were added to the population base. Peak population growth occurred in June 2009 at 114,000 persons.  The headline number as at September 2018 suggest that population based housing demand remains strong. NSW remains the preferred destination for those coming from overseas, closely followed by Melbourne. These two markets account for 62 percent of national net overseas migration which continues to underpin the local housing markets. Net Interstate Migration is being led by Queensland. Sydney has seen an improvement in its net loss while Melbourne continues to trend back toward its long running average. Western Australia is seeing a steady improvement in tis NIM result. Comparing the latest years result with the prior year’s result, NIM has improved by 19 percent, while NOM lifted by 7 percent. Adelaide has seen its level of NIM lift by 24% and it’s NOM by 4%, resulting in relatively stronger level of sales. In summary, latest population numbers suggest that underlying demand for housing and for new land will remain solid across the Eastern seaboard while slowly improving in the West.

LARGE PROJECTS DRIVING AFFORDABILITY

 

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The performance of the SEQ new land market as been outstanding. The market has now entered its 4th year of strong sales. An interesting observation, is the role larger estates have played when it has come to pricing and sale volumes. The Group 1 land estates (bigger than 2,500 lots) have on average sold product at 20% below the the wider land market or other sized land estates price point. This discount has propelled the Group 1 projects when it comes to market share. Understanding that new projects have entered the market, Group 1 projects across SEQ are currently accounting for 23% of total activity. Over the long run their share has averaged 15%. It is suggested that the recent strong performance of the SEQ land market is closely linked to the affordability capability of the bigger projects.

HOUSING MARKET

 

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Established Housing Market & Fair Value

This section will assess the “fair value” for new land. In addition to providing the base metrics around pricing such as price point and price change, this section will evaluate if new land prices are “fair”.

What is “fair value”?

Land values are influenced by the price points for established houses. New land prices are generally subject to the wider housing markets price points. “Fair value” is when land is priced in line with the long running relationship of land to house price.

There will be a number of reasons why new land price points are either under or over “fair value”, such as;

  • A general unawareness of the changing market conditions
  • A lack of competition between land estates and or
  • Changes to the level of underlying demand for new land

Being aware of any change in the relationship between land and house prices early will provide opportunity to re-set product pricing and to mitigate market risk.

MORE ABOUT US AND WHAT WE DO

Colin Keane

Colin Keane

Director of Research4

Colin Keane is the Director of Research4. Colin has been involved with developing residential property research since 1999. He has undertaken major engagements for both Private and Public sector clients. Colin’s focus has been to better understand the performance of the nation’s major residential Greenfield markets. Contact Colin at colin.keane@researchfour.com mobile | 0418 342 988

Research4’s Proprietary Data (IP)

Research4 specialises in better understanding the performance and profile of the nation’s residential Greenfield markets.

In order to better understand this segment of the property market, Research4 undertake bespoke and regular surveys of all residential land projects located within nominated growth corridors around Australia.

Research4’s core business is the development of proprietary Greenfield market data.

Research4 only uses data which is sourced from its own market research programs. There is no third party data employed.

Data and market insight from these surveys is then used to underpin various private and public Greenfield research platforms.

Research4 data and market insight is used to help inform policy, industry and customers when it comes to planning, delivering and or buying new land product.

Research4 data and insight is used by the UDIA for the production of their national State of the Land report. Research4 data and insight is used by State government planning departments in order to assist with understanding the performance and direction of local major Greenfield markets. Research4 data and insight is used by individual land developers and businesses, with a connection with the Australian residential land market. Accessing Research4 data and insight begins with making contact with Research4.

Research4’s Core Database

The development of a nationwide research program that collects on regular basis, market evidence pertaining to the activity of over 1,000 land estates, is the cornerstone of Research4. Research4’s core database contains the individual details of over 500,000 building lots offered to the market by developers. The R4 Core Database is growing by 50,000 lots per year. Each building lot is tagged, profiled and monitored through to final sale or allocation. The data is derived from undertaking ongoing fieldwork, land estate tracking programs and complete land use surveys. It involves multiple resources and a wide range of research techniques.

In addition to the details of individual building lots, each land estate is profiled based on a set Research4 criterion. The way a land estate is developed, key components that are used and the timing and quality of the development are all tracked. The R4 Core Database includes data which monitors the response rate of sale offices and their teams. R4 Core Database contains data and information that allows users of Research4’s data to investigate and better understand the new land market in a new and exciting way.

R4 Core Database – Applications and Metrics

R4 Core allows customers to better understand the following;

  • Volume of activity across a product type, project, market, Developer and region. The number of lots sold or allocated by lot size, lot frontage, price point, Developer, land estate type and location.
  • The distribution of new land product. Sizing by gross land area per building block. The performance and distribution of lots of a particular frontage and depth.
  • The distribution of price points across a product range. Percentage of new land sold within set price ranges.
  • The level of stock and changes to stock levels by product type, land estate, Developer and market.
  • The age of stock; how long has it been advertised for and price movement surrounding the age of stock.
  • The number of new lots that are being returned to the Land Estate each month. Cancellation rates provide clear insight as to the level of confidence in the market place.
  • Production levels. The volume of new land being released each quarter by land estates. The suitability of new releases i.e. by price, type and volume.
  • Industry capacity levels. How many lots can a market produce? Is the market under production pressure or does it have excess capacity? Production metrics provide insight as to the future direction of market pricing and affordability.
  • Lot sizing and trends. Changes to the median lot size.
  • Dollar per SQM rates.
  • Settlement time lines associated with land sales. How long do customers have to wait before they can commence building on their new land?
  • Supply remaining in active land estates. Critical information that is used to understand the supply side for a market, Developer and or land estate. When to enter the market, when to adjust pricing and how best to advertise.
  • Project type performance metrics. The performance of different types of land estates. Land estates come in all different sizes and type. R4 Core Database provides the user with opportunity to create performance benchmarks for different types and to segment the industry based on maturity, scale and inclusions.
  • Project competition and performance data. A key output from the R4 Core Database is market insight pertaining to the level of competition between projects and markets. This insight can be effectively used to better position planned and or active projects. Project marketing and advertising strategies perform better when powered by Research4.
  • Developer portfolio analysis. Aggregating performance data that relates to a Developer allows the user to understand strengths and weaknesses associated with any land portfolio.

Who Uses Research4’s Core Database?

The new land market represents close to 50% of a markets new housing supply.The role Greenfield plays in responding to housing demand is only strengthening. The nature and profile of the Greenfield Development industry is changing rapidly, product types are changing, pricing is always on the move and the marketing and promotion of land estates is and remains very competitive.

Some of the industries that employ Research4 Core Data;

  • New land development industry
  • Civil contracting
  • Building industry
  • Finance and Banking sector
  • Government planning
  • Building Materials and Supplies
  • Local Government Sector
  • Retail Sector
  • Education Sector
  • Infrastructure planning

The Residential Greenfield Markets We Cover

Melbourne
Sydney
ACT
Adelaide
Perth
Far North Queensland
South East Queensland
Illawarra
Geelong
Hunter
Gladstone
Rockhampton
Townsville

Research4’s Core Database is based on long running surveys covering the State’s major residential Greenfield markets. There are a number of smaller markets also included within the research programs.

  • Sydney and supporting regions
  • Melbourne
  • Perth
  • Adelaide
  • ACT
  • South East Queensland
  • Far North Queensland
  • Geelong
  • Illawarra
  • Hunter
  • Gladstone
  • Rockhampton
  • Townsville

HOW CAN RESEARCH4 HELP YOUR BUSINESS?

Research4 takes pride in helping businesses better understand the residential Greenfield market.

 

Our objective is to use our proprietary data and market insights to help expand your commercial narrative.

 

Customers of Research4 access our data and insights in a number of ways.

  1. There are a number of different reports, catering for different budgets. Contact Research4 for report examples and pricing.
  2. Customers can decide to purchase standard or customised R4 Core Database Cubes. These are often used to power internal business models and or reports. They come in the form of Excel spread sheets, either as raw data or processed data.
  3. Online portals which provide customers with timely and accessible market data [delivering January 2017].
  4. Customers looking for a tailored report responding to set criteria can commission Research4.
  5. Executive and Team presentations. Customers wanting Research4 to update sales and marketing teams or to provide leadership groups with the latest market trends and insights.
Contact Research4 via email or phone and we can provide you with a range of possible solutions. 

CONTACT US

Research4

MOBILE | 0418 342 988

research@researchfour.com