RESEARCH4 LIVE SNAPSHOT
| UPDATED DECEMBER 2017 |
The latest information on all of the residential Greenfield markets that we cover.
Selected market updates are constantly being added to the Research4 website. Additionally, connect to Colin Keane via LinkedIn for further market updates.
SOME COFFEE TABLE THOUGHTS
GEELONG LAND MARKET
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The Geelong and Surf Coast new land market continues to post impressive results. Total net sales lifted by 11% for the quarter [ Dec 17 quarter]; compared to Melbourne total net sales dropping by 16%.
The popularity of the Geelong market is being driven by a combination of factors; strong levels of population growth for the State, very tight new land market across the South West Greenfield markets of Melbourne, competitive land prices and the simple location of the Geelong new land market.
I think that the market is now seeing Geelong as a great lifestyle opportunity. It is the only Melbourne Greenfield sub market that can boast close proximity to significant coastal assets.
The market seems to be managing the spike in demand via a sustainable release program and control over lot prices. Lot prices for the market increased by 3% for the year; compared to Melbourne land prices lifting close to 30%.
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The main driver of housing demand is always people. The reason why people come and go will be influenced by a range of factors; employment, friends and family, education and or lifestyle choices.
National Net Overseas Migration for the June 2017 quarter (latest) was 47, 864 persons, down from the March quarter result of 86,595 persons. The 45% drop between the quarters needs to be balanced with the fact that the latest number is 14% lower than the past 12 months quarterly average.
Looking at each of the States, it would appear that Queensland is the best placed state when it comes to NOM and NIM trends. Melbourne is seeing some weakness in the NIM trend while also tracking 20% below the past year NOM intake average.
What this all means is that Melbourne in particular is seeing some noteworthy changes to its population base.
LARGE PROJECTS DRIVING AFFORDABILITY
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PROJECT IN FOCUS
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Yarrabilba has put the Logan market on the residential land map. This is a major Group 1 master planned community with grand ambitions. It is a 30 year project and is set to do what Springfield Lakes did for Ipswich. With the Ipswich market the biggest land market for SEQ, it is no wonder that Developers are now considering the Logan market with some detail. In 2008, total land sales were equal to 35 lots per month, with the introduction of Yarrabilba in 2014, land sales jumped to 140 per month and since 2014 have been holding around 120 per month. Yarrabilba has set it self up as the center of the local universe, hence commanding a market share of 25-35%. It has cemented its place in the market via kick starting the project with exceptionally low priced product. It has now moved prices from a starting point of sub $80,000 back in 2014 to $212,000 as at 2017. The project is now coming under increase competition, from a growing number of land estates situated around the local area. This competition is focusing on price and size. The main thing Yarrabilba has going for it is the fact that it is defining the urban center. The project that defines the urban center for a market will have the power to set the price points.
MORE ABOUT US AND WHAT WE DO
Colin Keane is the Director of Research4. Colin has been involved with developing residential property research since 1999. He has undertaken major engagements for both Private and Public sector clients. Colin’s focus has been to better understand the performance of the nation’s major residential Greenfield markets. Contact Colin at email@example.com mobile | 0418 342 988
Research4’s Proprietary Data (IP)
Research4 specialises in better understanding the performance and profile of the nation’s residential Greenfield markets.
In order to better understand this segment of the property market, Research4 undertake bespoke and regular surveys of all residential land projects located within nominated growth corridors around Australia.
Research4’s core business is the development of proprietary Greenfield market data.
Research4 only uses data which is sourced from its own market research programs. There is no third party data employed.
Data and market insight from these surveys is then used to underpin various private and public Greenfield research platforms.
Research4 data and market insight is used to help inform policy, industry and customers when it comes to planning, delivering and or buying new land product.
Research4 data and insight is used by the UDIA for the production of their national State of the Land report. Research4 data and insight is used by State government planning departments in order to assist with understanding the performance and direction of local major Greenfield markets. Research4 data and insight is used by individual land developers and businesses, with a connection with the Australian residential land market. Accessing Research4 data and insight begins with making contact with Research4.
Research4’s Core Database
The development of a nationwide research program that collects on regular basis, market evidence pertaining to the activity of over 1,000 land estates, is the cornerstone of Research4. Research4’s core database contains the individual details of over 500,000 building lots offered to the market by developers. The R4 Core Database is growing by 50,000 lots per year. Each building lot is tagged, profiled and monitored through to final sale or allocation. The data is derived from undertaking ongoing fieldwork, land estate tracking programs and complete land use surveys. It involves multiple resources and a wide range of research techniques.
In addition to the details of individual building lots, each land estate is profiled based on a set Research4 criterion. The way a land estate is developed, key components that are used and the timing and quality of the development are all tracked. The R4 Core Database includes data which monitors the response rate of sale offices and their teams. R4 Core Database contains data and information that allows users of Research4’s data to investigate and better understand the new land market in a new and exciting way.
R4 Core Database – Applications and Metrics
R4 Core allows customers to better understand the following;
- Volume of activity across a product type, project, market, Developer and region. The number of lots sold or allocated by lot size, lot frontage, price point, Developer, land estate type and location.
- The distribution of new land product. Sizing by gross land area per building block. The performance and distribution of lots of a particular frontage and depth.
- The distribution of price points across a product range. Percentage of new land sold within set price ranges.
- The level of stock and changes to stock levels by product type, land estate, Developer and market.
- The age of stock; how long has it been advertised for and price movement surrounding the age of stock.
- The number of new lots that are being returned to the Land Estate each month. Cancellation rates provide clear insight as to the level of confidence in the market place.
- Production levels. The volume of new land being released each quarter by land estates. The suitability of new releases i.e. by price, type and volume.
- Industry capacity levels. How many lots can a market produce? Is the market under production pressure or does it have excess capacity? Production metrics provide insight as to the future direction of market pricing and affordability.
- Lot sizing and trends. Changes to the median lot size.
- Dollar per SQM rates.
- Settlement time lines associated with land sales. How long do customers have to wait before they can commence building on their new land?
- Supply remaining in active land estates. Critical information that is used to understand the supply side for a market, Developer and or land estate. When to enter the market, when to adjust pricing and how best to advertise.
- Project type performance metrics. The performance of different types of land estates. Land estates come in all different sizes and type. R4 Core Database provides the user with opportunity to create performance benchmarks for different types and to segment the industry based on maturity, scale and inclusions.
- Project competition and performance data. A key output from the R4 Core Database is market insight pertaining to the level of competition between projects and markets. This insight can be effectively used to better position planned and or active projects. Project marketing and advertising strategies perform better when powered by Research4.
- Developer portfolio analysis. Aggregating performance data that relates to a Developer allows the user to understand strengths and weaknesses associated with any land portfolio.
Who Uses Research4’s Core Database?
The new land market represents close to 50% of a markets new housing supply.The role Greenfield plays in responding to housing demand is only strengthening. The nature and profile of the Greenfield Development industry is changing rapidly, product types are changing, pricing is always on the move and the marketing and promotion of land estates is and remains very competitive.
Some of the industries that employ Research4 Core Data;
- New land development industry
- Civil contracting
- Building industry
- Finance and Banking sector
- Government planning
- Building Materials and Supplies
- Local Government Sector
- Retail Sector
- Education Sector
- Infrastructure planning
The Residential Greenfield Markets We Cover
Research4’s Core Database is based on long running surveys covering the State’s major residential Greenfield markets. There are a number of smaller markets also included within the research programs.
- Sydney and supporting regions
- South East Queensland
- Far North Queensland
HOW CAN RESEARCH4 HELP YOUR BUSINESS?
Research4 takes pride in helping businesses better understand the residential Greenfield market.
Our objective is to use our proprietary data and market insights to help expand your commercial narrative.
Customers of Research4 access our data and insights in a number of ways.
There are a number of different reports, catering for different budgets. Contact Research4 for report examples and pricing.
Customers can decide to purchase standard or customised R4 Core Database Cubes. These are often used to power internal business models and or reports. They come in the form of Excel spread sheets, either as raw data or processed data.
Online portals which provide customers with timely and accessible market data [delivering January 2017].
Customers looking for a tailored report responding to set criteria can commission Research4.
Executive and Team presentations. Customers wanting Research4 to update sales and marketing teams or to provide leadership groups with the latest market trends and insights.